Options of The Egyptian Opposition at The 2018 Presidential Elections

The Egyptian presidential elections that will take place in the spring of 2018 will be the most important event in the political arena in Egypt, and is expected to affect the entire region of the Middle East. The position of the Egyptian opposition in this event seems to be confused and divided, from its assessment of the value to the definition of its role towards these elections. The position of some opposition groups however, may lead to an effective political breakthrough and reveal some crucial results, despite having limited space and tools to manoeuvre.

Monitoring the positions of the opposition through their statements and writings, can be summarized and differentiated with the following three specific estimates:

 First: to assess the position of the liberal group.

In Egypt, many liberal members in opposition see their position – as well as their role- in the upcoming presidential elections as being focused on two things:

First: To reveal (or expose) the regime with regards to their attempt to nominate President Sisi for the elections in 2018 and to stress that he is the “candidate of harm” to the homeland, the people and the national community only after some saw him as a “candidate of necessity” (as he was the only candidate).

Second: This opposition should seek to submit an indictment against the Sisi regime and its policies in return for what is expected to be present in an electoral program. This indictment will be more convincing to the Egyptian electorate than the electoral platform and the empty promises he has made. The opposition may expand these two points to cover several other spaces including:

• • International forums

• • Local, regional and international human rights organizations

• • Diplomacy and parliamentary communication in the West

• • Communication with the civil and official institutions in Africa

• • Communicate with official systems and expose cooperating systems in the West, despite their commitment to democracy, protection and democratic transformations

• Various other media, especially social media

Many of the activists in opposition feel the need to refute the ideas which President Sisi bases his domestic policies and his support both regional and international after gaining a great deal of external recognition. The opposition seek to condemn and diminish the following important points:

• • The “fight against terrorism”. It seems clear that the opposition will focus its speech on comparing the “state of terrorism” before Sisi received power and after four years of his rule, to show that his policies have led the country down a slope, and that Sisi is politically gaining and that his regime is keen to survive in the next circle of events. The spread of fear and anxiety about the future drives voters to complacency, making them fear that the worst is yet to come. We believe that the opposition will achieve results in this area, especially after the promises of Mr. Sisi to eliminate terrorism totally and quickly, and the fact that he confirmed in 2015 that more than 95% of the terrorists in Sinai were eliminated.

• The myth of the people of evil. The confirmation that phrases such as these will plant hatred between the people of the nation turning them against one another. This in return deepens the polarisation for a political benefit, this is opportunism.
• The claim to preserve the Egyptian national security, the opposition may cancel this lawsuit as they are always reminded of the renunciation of the islands Tiran and Sanafir. The priorities of the regime is to neglect national security, as we see from the displacement of the people in and around Rafah to protect the security of Israel, as Mr. Sisi said himself. There is also talk of plans to give up parts of Sinai as an alternative home for some Palestinians.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ix_fo-HnQ-Q
• To prosecute the promise of a future in prosperity within the media discourse talking about patience, infidelity and submission. This case could prove easy for the opposition to tackle as there has been a repetition of promises made by Sisi to improve the living conditions of the people before the end of 2015, after the promises were broken he then requested a period of 6 months, then requested an extension of two more years, and all were empty promises.

The spread of fear and anxiety about the future drives voters to complacency, making them fear that the worst is yet to come

Policies for preparing the indictment of the regime:

“An Indictment not an Electoral Program”. Under this slogan, the opposition will aim to adopt an initial account from the period of Sisi’s rule, especially since there is an absence of parliamentary accountability, as they (the parliament) have fully submitted to the dictates of the executive authority.

Therefore, the opposition see that this approach will have a positive effect on the public and will broadly affect the people ‘sitting on the fence’. We can not be totally sure of the impact this regulation will have, it will heavily depend on the effectiveness of the activities supporting them and their ability to spread widely and intellectually.

The opposition party believe that this list should be patriotic and not just for its supporters. It focuses on what it sees as a government that destroys its homeland, weakens the state, ruins resources and holds a future with increased debts, in addition to the loss of vital assets of the country’s economy. The Sisi regime lost its national legitimacy before the political process for the Egyptian territory for some suspicious reason. The opposition may focus their argument on the failings of the Sisi regime, which will break its mass, its allies and close circle, but this may require clearer steps to draw up a list of accusations it will adopt. Some opposition figures say it must rely on the following points:

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The opposition party believe that this list should be patriotic and not just for its supporters. It focuses on what it sees as a government that destroys its homeland, weakens the state, ruins resources and holds a future with increased debts

Secondly: Assessing the position of national groups who wish to compete in the election

A faction on the opposition party and several others, see that a candidate who is standing against President Sisi will greatly gain by participating in an election that is known to be neither fair nor free.

This faction argues that being absent from the electoral scene will make Sisi succeed easily and that he will not be able to push for the image of a contestant who plays the role of a “puppet candidate” to fulfil the representation of the election. According to this faction, being absence will paralyze the effectiveness of the opposition party and wholly reduce their presence within the public and may in the future, undermine its political efforts.

A faction on the opposition party and several others, see that a candidate who is standing against President Sisi will greatly gain by participating in an election that is known to be neither fair nor free

Those within this trend see that electoral participation is “controlled” and limited, to ensure the success of the idea of ​​participation regardless of its results. There are three restrictions  – or conditions – for the rival candidate to avoid in the next election:

The first is to determine the specifications of the candidate and the conditions for his election, in order to answer the following important questions:

Who rules Egypt and what provision is appropriate relation to this?

In this context, the opposition argues that the ruler of Egypt must be on the same level as the problems in order to deal with both past and present issues, going as far back as facing the problems which arose within the golden rule. If there are a lot of problems which become complicated, you and others will come together to face them or in other words you become the “alternative option”.

Second: President Sisi during his reign has been planting a seed of hatred and created crisis that may put the community on the brink of a civil war; it is therefore an absolute necessity for those who will govern Egypt to achieve reconciliation for the community; their main task is to save the country and people, a task which the opposition believe Sisi is not worthy of. They believe he is the one who caused the problem related to social class (the social gap between the classes) and cultivated hatred, therefore the candidates main priority should be reconciliation and addressing the social cracks in the cohesion of the people, carefully bearing in mind that this may cause chaos.

They believe he is the one who caused the problem related to social class (the social gap between the classes) and cultivated hatred, therefore the candidates main priority should be reconciliation and addressing the social cracks in the cohesion of the people, carefully bearing in mind that this may cause chaos.

Third: The opposition party is not only looking for a candidate with personal characteristics, they are looking for one who’s specific purpose is related to the need to preserve the homeland, save the people and the national community. He must see in himself a true willingness to come forward and have the support of others, to fulfil all societal needs without any delay.

In short, the opposition see that a detailed list of policies and steps are required of those who want to govern the country, this will enable them to remove the effects of aggression on the people and the homeland. They will ensure it is known that those who enter the election market, are doing so out of selfishness and authoritarian desires and if this is shown, the grievances of the people will curse and chase those candidates. There will be no winners and no losers in the political situation if the opposition do not stand together.

This opposition believes that the example of Mr. Hamdin Sabahi,the candidate against the Sisi in the 2014 elections, was in fact in support of the Sisi, to legitimise the elections. The candidate who plays such a role is now seen as a traitor to the people and their future. In reality since the election, he is considered a participant in all the decline witnessed in Egypt.

In addition, some opposition figures have demanded that the rival candidate be a team rather than a single individual, an idea that would be broadly popular and accepted. The consensus on a “presidential team” would be much easier than agreeing on one personality. However, practical steps at the height of the electoral competition could prove to be slow and sluggish – and perhaps create conflicts -the presidential team in exchange for uniting the opposition behind one candidate. Whatever the intention of the opposition, we believe that it will require a calculated attendance and management in a limited space of time. In any case, the opposition has now started talking about the necessity of participating and the guarantees attached to it.

They will ensure it is known that those who enter the election market, are doing so out of selfishness and authoritarian desires and if this is shown, the grievances of the people will curse and chase those candidates. There will be no winners and no losers in the political situation if the opposition do not stand together

The challenges of electoral guarantees

• There is no doubt that the most important challenge of all is that the candidate enters the election and engages with seriousness due to the fact that these candidates are presenting themselves as people who aspire to really change and serve the nation.

It seems that the opposition will demand the following guarantees; with the belief that they can leverage or bring down the ceiling according to the political movement on the ground:

• Abolishing the state of emergency. There can be no real elections in a country under a state of emergency that may target opponents and candidates at any time and put them in a circle of indictment and criminality.
• Full transparency of the new National Elections Commission (NEC), with the ability to review electoral lists and ensure that they are updated, and that the Commission is fully independent from the executive authority.
• Details of the electoral procedures, to stop any forgery and counterfeiting.
• Observation of elections by the United Nations and other international bodies to ensure their seriousness and integrity.
• Extensive control of all internal NPOs, enabling them to follow up on election and screening procedures.

In the absence of the above guarantees, the opposition may find itself forced to withdraw, but the opposition require great political skills to make such a decision, as well as right timing, and coordination with other opposition factions.

The Refining Process

It has come to light, that there are several groups trying to form a presidential team to enter the next elections. These ideas range from three things:

1.Establishing an option to choose a candidate from the army and the announcement of civilian assistants and participants in power (team Annan and team Shafiq).

2. A civilian candidate who is there to assist is likely to be part of a former military team.
3. A civilian candidate in a civilian presidential team trying to have open discussions in order to create a civilian-military relationship.

The candidacy process and potential scenarios suffer from many weaknesses including:

1. The potential promotion of the military candidate.
2. Multiple candidates from different parties.
3. Lack of confidence in some candidates to continue the task of embarrassing the regime and its candidate Sisi.
4. Problems related to regional and international support.
5. Entering the elections and legitimizing the current system as it is.

The First Analysis of the Electoral Mass (Bloc)

It is important that elements of the electoral mass are monitored and a set of key points are taken into consideration:

• The boycotting and the widespread denial of participation in elections.
• People’s needs and demands to be taken into account, as well as the elections being an opportunity to enable claims.
• The difficulty of assembling the masses towards elective mobilization
• The return of people ‘sitting on the fence’.
• Added to this is the faction of fear and intimidation (i.e. We are better than Syria and Iraq) so there is a logic of “thank God”.
• The expression of revolutionary goals is contradictory in light of the start of an electoral situation within the existing political system.
• The condition of the owners of this project and the need to understand the electoral mass properly and their votes.

There will then be two different voting blocs that the opposition will need to deal with in a clear and specific manner:

The Islamic bloc: It still has a voting power and can affect the electoral situation, but they seem to be in a state of relative liquidity. The size of the participation of this bloc will depend on whether they will withdraw completely or decide to engage and vote indirectly and discreetly. But this is a major problem, as the question lies with who is leaning towards this direction and will choose this option?

The young voters: Most young revolutionary people look at elections and feel like it is somewhat comedic.  Yet they may see elections as an important opportunity for civil orientation. Many young people have a lack of concern or apathy towards political issues due to ongoing psychological despair and frustration.

Some young civil groups also consider it an opportunity to invest in the state of the Islamic groups where there is forced and optional unwillingness to participate in the electoral process, which is a form of exclusion, be it indirect exclusion.

Some young people affirm that investing in the electoral situation at this time is a perfect time as they chant “we can do it”. The most important thing the opposition must do in this case, is to get young people out of the ‘boycott’ stage and into a state of engagement even if a minority of them are revolutionary and protest against this.

However, under these conditions, the removal of the bloc of fear, intimidation and the people sitting on the fence will be one of the most important keys to the upcoming elections. It is between reluctance or the movement to strengthen the existing regime, in accordance with the golden principle of stability (what you know is better than what you don’t know).

What is known for certain is that some of this bloc will not go to the elections at all, and if they do, they will not vote for victory to start the process of change as it in a state of indifference, negativity and fear.

 

However, under these conditions, the removal of the bloc of fear, intimidation and the people sitting on the fence will be one of the most important keys to the upcoming elections

The third is to assess the position of the Islamic movement:

What is meant by the Islamic movement or trend here is the Muslims who are committed to performing the duties of Islam, who want to refer to Islam in all aspects of their life. This includes organized units such as the Muslim Brotherhood, Salafi and some Sufi.

There is a tendency that the majority of the movement will sin from participating in the electoral process, whether at the level of candidacy or going to the ballot boxes, as they consider this as legitimizing the existing regime in some way. They stand in recognition for the dead, injured and those imprisoned unlawfully.

However, some of the wings of this trend may have other ideas that would make them closer to the election event in response to what they might see as “realizing the best of one of the two interests with loosing the least of the two, and fending off the most corrupt one of the two, while bearing the least of them.” They may not be willing to participate and even call for boycotts, but they may see no issue in investing in the election as the event will happen whether they are involved or not.

Overall, the Islamic movement continues to talk of the risk they face for participating in the upcoming elections rather than the opportunities they may have, it seems that there are two problems here:

• The first is the legitimacy and its establishment on what they see as ‘the legitimacy of President Morsi‘. The language of these people is that the elections legitimize the existing system and lead to many problems. Despite their efforts to adopt the revolutionary path, in reality it has not had any impact on the ground.

Overall, the Islamic movement continues to talk of the risk they face for participating in the upcoming elections rather than the opportunities they may have

Especially as popular mobilization is shadowed by anger of the people and the mobilization of power for a revolution and majority project is still suffering from the tools of brutality and falsehood. The general mood or atmosphere in the environment may not be right or encouraging and that some of those who call for confrontation underestimate that several things have a significant impact on the course of events; such as (the counter revolution, the military and its current and future leadership, the control of the security services, the control of the administration and the bureaucratic situation that practice disobedience without ‘actually’ being disobedient).

• The second is the perception of a “breakthrough“, although this trend makes the “breakthrough” a hopeful desire it is also a wish. There has been a continuous attrition of illegal killings, forced abductions, arrests and pursuits so it is clear that due to this phase of confrontation and a sense of injustice and sacrifice, some are waiting for those to come to make a big breakthrough. In this regard, it is possible for the Islamist movement to push for a possible breakthrough and map it into the heart of the presidential election as an alternative, although the electoral process is seen as a failed option that can not be accepted.

Despite this, there are more vocal people within the Islamic trend calling for a new director or a third way to play a part in refusing to renew the presidency of the Sisi without getting involved and engaging in the electoral process, through the following:

First, it must stand by its word not to recognize the legitimacy of the regime and not provide support for the elections.

Second, it should provide necessary logical principles to save a nation and its people using three strategies accordingly:

1. To remain silent about those who will enter this electoral process, not to criticize or hate them.
2. Build a strategy to expose the regime and the candidate who must be tried in a court of law, as an oppressor he should be removed
3. Pass the “breakthrough” and enable the candidates to adopt and impose it on the agenda of the homeland.

Despite this, there are more vocal people within the Islamic trend calling for a new director or a third way to play a part in refusing to renew the presidency of the Sisi without getting involved and engaging in the electoral process

These can be translated into the following practical steps:

• The Islamic trend should not be directly involved in this electoral project
• To be keen to establish a debate focused on the candidate Sisi in order to be able to expose and break this system in an efficient and strategic manner.
• Contribute to defining the specifications and conditions relating to who governs Egypt.
• The main priorities for candidates in the upcoming elections should be community reconciliation and management of how to make a successful breakthrough.

The supporters of this approach from the Islamic movement see that the next scene will impose itself or a political illusion that emphasizes that in definition creating alternatives is an art. Furthermore, in politics, a lack of presence does not mean non-existence. Some people may not be appreciated by the Islamic trend or have comments and reservations, but they are the ones who aim to embarrass the regime and siege them into a corner.

Politics means that being present comes before being absent in order to take in the scene, it is also known as calculated presence or a required measure. Politics also means that the vacuum must be filled and that the void will be filled by you or by others. So, can the current trend look for a foot position to influence the above areas? (exposing the system, making a breakthrough, the possibility of healing in the coming period with the named movement being so called ‘civil’).

Above all, this movement must have an account of the risks, the opportunities, capabilities and their potentials as well as differentiating between positions and policies.